Jalaj P. Jha Technical & Miscellaneous Ramblings

Paul the Octopus, Real Oracle?

Now that Spain won the FIFA World Cup, people are also celebrating another win, Paul Octopus's another true prediction! Claims are being made that Paul Octopus made 100% correct predictions in the World Cup 2010, but where are the numbers? Paul made overall 8 predictions whereas total matches played in the World Cup were over 60. So do 8 predictions, where 60 could be made, qualify for 100% true predictions? Answer would be that he was made to predict only the matches in which Germany was playing until finals which was predicted despite Germany being absent from the game.

Isn't presence of Germany a bias factor in entire predictions? It is, considering his earlier predictions for Euro 2008 matches where he achieved 67% true predictions and guess what! he predicted Germany to win in each of the 6 matches but was incorrect in 2 predictions where Germany was defeated...

Now to how Paul predicted the outcome of matches! Two boxes with same\/similar eatables were placed in two boxes. Each box had a flag for a country. The box that Paul the octopus chose to eat was considered to be prediction for winning team. So the predictions can be biased again, biased due to eating habits of the octopus. Though you can argue that same\/similar food was kept in clear boxes with only difference of flags, believe me if that difference didn't matter there would be no marketing strategies as "Lux in new international Pack". And that it is proven that though Octopus of Paul's species are color blind they do have sense of patterns as horizontal stripes etc, which can lead him to go for same patterned boxes each time!

I may seem contradicting in above paras, that while in Euro 2008 Paul selected Germany each time, in FIFA 2010 he chose other countries as well, but reason behind it can too be due to eating habits. You can go for eating same brand of food all the time, except for two reasons: first you need change and second the regular brand is not available. Paul's selection other than Germany in matches upto semi-finals can be due to the first reason, where as selection of Spain in finals for the other reason, Spain being the tasted and trusted brand over Netherlands! ymmm!!

In view of the above, at least I don't call Paul the Octopus an Oracle. He needs to prove that with other matches too. So, those who are eager to taste the Octopus Salad, please wait until next World Cup and see Paul predicting all 60 matches...